I'm Not Anti Stats

Why I started this newsletter. Plus, Cooper Flagg, Two Coaching Moves & Baseball's Biggest Problem.

I’m not anti statistics. Far from it.

The golden age of advanced analytics has turned teams, players, fans and media into better ball knowers than ever before.

The three point shot is king in the NBA. It took the league a long time to figure that out, but once it did the floodgates opened. Major League Baseball tallies more strikeouts than ever before and home run numbers rival those of the Steroids Era.

Three is more than two. Why spend multiple batters getting a runner around the diamond when you could just hit one over the fence? All of it makes sense and no one should be blamed for the statistics-driven nature of today’s sports leagues. But it does suck some of the soul out of sports, at least for me.

Two months ago, my employer made a decision. One that I also feel sucks the soul out of the sport I cover (golf). Instead of our podcast being a love letter to a very weird (although some may call it normal) sport and the sickos that want to hear about it on a daily basis, it’s now a repeat of the following cycle: 1) find a statistic, 2) come to a conclusion about that statistic, and 3) point the viewer in the direction of the gambling decision they should make as a result. It almost doesn’t matter what sport it is at this point.

That’s where this newsletter comes in. I dearly miss talking about sports just for the sake of it. I don’t get to do it very often these days.

So, that’s what I’m going to do here. I’ve got no picks, no predictions. While the spirit is to not talk about stats, those will inevitably wiggle their way into the conversation. I’m not here to create content that is perfect for a 37-second social media clip. Sometimes I will ramble, sometimes I won’t make total sense. But that’s kinda the point.

Ok, enough of that. I’ve got four things to talk about this week. Let’s do it.

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Cooper Flagg is Headed to the Final Four

The 2025 NCAA Tournament has sparked way more conversation about non-NCAA Tournament topics than most. This year’s madness hasn’t scratched the itch that many are looking for in March. The upsets didn’t come. The top 16 seeds dominated the first weekend and all four No. 1 seeds are headed to San Antonio.

Instead of praising the elite level at which the top of the sport is playing this year, NIL became the topic of conversation. The tournament is ruined, say goodbye to the cinderella, etc. That’s a conversation worth having, but I actually think the takeaway from this tournament is a different one.

Cooper Flagg is going to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft weeks after going to the Final Four. That’s only happened one other time since 2015 (2022, Paolo Banchero). If Duke goes on to win it all, it will be the first time the No. 1 pick is a reigning national champion since Anthony Davis at Kentucky in 2012.

Flagg is a bonafide star. This a great thing for college basketball. Cinderella runs are awesome, but it’s big names doing big things on the big stage that will propel the sport forward. Flagg is the headline of a loaded Final Four. That and what happens next weekend will be the lasting memory of this tournament.

Do you remember when everyone was worried that the best young American basketball players weren’t going to go to college for much longer? That they’d choose Overtime Elite (Thompson twins), G League Ignite (Jalen Green) or playing overseas (LaMelo Ball) instead? Me neither.

In 2023, five of the top seven picks in the draft didn’t play college basketball. Fast forward two years and the NBA has closed the doors of G League Ignite and Jonathan Wasserman’s most recent mock draft has the top 14 picks coming from the college ranks from Flagg to UConn’s Liam McNeeley. And every player at the top of 247Sport’s 2025 rankings is going to college next season.

Of course, there will often be an OTE player here or an international player there, but the days of worrying about anything other than college being the best choice for a budding basketball star in this country are long gone.

NIL has made things more complicated, no doubt. But it’s also supplied millions of reasons for stars to play — and sometimes stay — in college.

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Kevin Willard to Villanova is Fascinating

After leading Maryland to its first 25-win season since 2016, Kevin Willard is headed to Villanova. Much of the Terrapins’ run to the Sweet 16 was clouded by Willard’s looming decision and the reasons given for entertaining the opening in Philadelphia. The head coach made it clear that improved resources were a non-negotiable if he were to stay in College Park.

This situation pushes me towards the topic that I think a lot about in sports. What is the definition of success?

In some ways, that’s a supremely dumb question. The definition of success is titles, regardless of the sport. There’s a lot of truth to that. But I strongly believe that’s not the whole story.

The Terps won 27 games this year, two of which came in the NCAA Tournament. They had one of the best freshman in the country. They reportedly spent around $3 million in NIL on the roster. That’s a successful season by just about every standard, especially for a program that was picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten. But even in the midst of the NCAA Tournament, one that was going well (or at least to expectation), Willard’s mind was on fighting for every dollar he can get his hands on. Which leads me back to the definition of success.

What if Maryland had gone to the Final Four? Is that success? What if they win the National Championship? Does that mean Willard stays no matter what? Or would he still leave even as a national champion if he didn’t get the guarantees about NIL money he desired?

A lot of these questions will forever be unanswerable because Maryland didn’t cut down nets in San Antonio. It would be logical to suggest that a banner would unlock more money, more support, more resources.

But at the end of the day, Willard was worried about this other benchmark of success in the middle of the road toward the traditional benchmark of success. That’s fascinating because it begs the question would anything short of deeper pockets — even a national championship — have kept him at Maryland?

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The Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins

NBA head coaches don’t often get fired with nine games remaining in the regular season. NBA head coaches that are fighting for home court in the first round of the playoffs definitely don’t get fired with nine games left.

Taylor Jenkins did.

I’ve read a lot about what happened inside my hometown team’s organization. On the outside looking in, things look relatively simple. Ja Morant didn’t like the offense. Jenkins was losing his ability to inspire the Grizzlies locker room and the organization as a whole. And Memphis was losing games. That’s a dynamite combination that’s quite hard to come back from.

The prevailing question is why now? Reasonable.

But I have a counter question: why not now?

I am of the belief that Jenkins was gone after this season barring some sort of run like the one that secured Mike Budenholzer another two years in Milwaukee (i.e. a championship). After a turbulent six seasons, it felt like it was time for a different voice on the sidelines.

It is highly unlikely Memphis will make a deep run in a loaded Western Conference. Two, three, four different things will need to happen just to put them in position to capitalize and make it all the way to the Finals.

Maybe Grizzlies GM Zach Kleiman decided the only way Memphis even had a chance to capitalize on a tweaked ankle here or a poor shooting night there was to jolt a stumbling team awake right before the playoffs.

I’m sure there is more to the story that we won’t ever know, at least not anytime soon. You don’t fire a head coach that your stars love in the NBA. Kleiman suggesting it was him and him alone is just silly, because it never is.

However, sometimes it is just time. Whether it’s late March right before the playoffs or late April right after, the right time doesn’t always match up with when things are normally done. Today’s second unanswerable question, what if they fire him in four weeks? Is anyone all that surprised? Probably not.

If it was just time for him to go, a looming playoffs that was probably going to end in defeat shouldn’t be the only reason to stay the course.

As always, go Grizz.

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I live in Washington DC…and I can’t watch Nationals Games

Happy Opening Weekend to all those who celebrate.

The Washington Nationals opened the season with a home series against the Philadelphia Phillies. On Saturday afternoon, I made an attempt to catch a couple innings on TV.

Nice try.

YouTube TV is my current form of television subscription. It’s great. However, they do not have a partnership with MASN, the channel on which Nationals games are broadcast. So, they aren’t on my YouTube TV channel guide.

Unfortunate.

MASN’s streaming options are only through TV providers. There isn’t a “pay us directly to stream the games on the website” option.

Bummer. Strike two.

I have a subscription to MLB TV — go Red Sox — but I can’t watch the game there either because of a blackout.

That sucks. Strike three.

Let’s recap. I’m a Washington DC resident, trying to support the baseball team that plays less than two miles from my apartment. But because I choose not to have traditional cable there is literally no option for me to watch the Nationals play. It is easier for someone living in — pick any city in the entire country — to watch the Nationals.

Baseball is a regional sport built on the backs of the fans of each team. Nationals fans don’t care about the Braves. Braves fans don’t care about the Diamondbacks. The only way baseball sustains is to lean in to the regional pride each team’s fan base has. I would highly recommend making it less hard for people to watch baseball. Either that or Rob Manfred and company should stop complaining that their sport doesn’t grow the way others do.

“How can we make the most money.” Not “how can we make this the best viewing experience for the fans.” It’s happening in baseball. It’s happening in golf. It’s happening everywhere.

It’s not that simple, but it’s how I’m feeling three days into the season.

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This was a blast, at least for me. I’m sitting here on a Sunday morning, one that I spent tossing around the ideas that have been in my head all week. Now those ideas exist on a page. That’s fun. Thanks for reading.

See you next week.